Hoops for Nerds

Through four games of the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, we've seen miraculous comebacks, expected and unexpected heroes, and some questionable defensive coverages. With the series tied 2-2, Game 5 at Chase Center is crucial to either team's hope to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy. Historically speaking, this is the 31st time the NBA Finals have been tied 2-2; the winner of Game 5 in the previous 30 went on to win the series 73.3% (22-8) of the time. While Vegas has the Warriors as a 4-point favorite at home, ESPN's BPI and  FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR currently predict the Celtics to have a 52% and 53% chance of winning respectively. Let's take a look through some of the key storylines in this series: (Kyle Terada, USA TODAY Sports) 1. The Ever-Combustible Steph Curry Where do I even start? Through four games, Steph has scored over 30 in eve

This article is a follow-up to a previous article released about the NFL Draft. Seeing as that analysis was conducted before the 2021 NFL Draft, I wanted to release this secondary article to apply that analysis to this year's trades. I recommend reading the first article before returning here. As mentioned in the previous article, there are two main ways I will analyze these trades:  Jimmy Johnson draft value chart  and the Approximate Value regression I ran in the previous article. Of the thirty trades that were transacted over the three days of the NFL Draft, only twenty were suitable for this type of analysis. The trades selected involve only swaps of draft picks (meaning that the Sam Darnold trade or Carson Wentz trade were not included) and all the draft picks were pick 224 or higher since Johnson's draft value chart only goes that far.  Since some of the trades involved trading picks from future draft classes,

Playmaking is one of the most valuable abilities a basketball player can have. It can matter even more than a players' scoring ability especially when paired alongside very talented players. (Dale Zanine, USA TODAY Sports) Fans typically think of assists as a measure of playmaking, but this fails to capture a decent amount of playmaking value. Through just assists, players will not get credit for so-called "hockey assists" where multiple passes may be required to convert the advantage into a high-quality shot. Even worse, credit is given to the last player to pass rather than the one who created the advantage in the first place. Take a look at this play below the Warriors ran against the Grizzlies in 2015: Draymond Green got credit for the assist since he was the one to make the final pass to Bogut, but was he the one who created the initial offensive advantage? No. The screening action at the wing between Curry and

We all know the NFL draft can be an absolute mess. General managers and coaches make and break their careers based on the players they select. Can you avoid picking Jamarcus Russell first overall? Can you find the Day 3 gem in Tom Brady or Shannon Sharpe? Player evaluations are not my strong suit. People far more knowledgeable than me watch thousands of hours of tape on these prospects, and yet still about half of all first-round picks do not live up to expectations .  (Brian Bahr/Getty Images) Inspired by the 49ers trading up from the 12th-overall pick to the 3rd-overall in this years' draft to address their quarterback problem, I wanted to see the relative value of these draft picks to see whether trading up would be an overpay or not. Using the past history of draft-day trades, I would be able to do this, but I realized that most teams use draft value charts. The most popular of which is Jimmy Johnson's . Rather something more interesting to look at is whether this draft val

Since acquiring Aaron Gordon from the Magic at the trade deadline, the Nuggets have won all 6 of their games with him in the lineup. Over that stretch, they beat the Hawks, who were 9-2 in their last eleven, the Sixers, who had won 6 of their last 8 all without then-MVP-frontrunner Joel Embiid, and the Clippers, who were 6-1 in their last 7.  (Bart Young, Getty Images) As he's gone from the second option with the Magic to the 4th scoring option with the Nuggets, Gordon has seen his touches go way down, and his efficiency skyrocket.  Team Touches per Game Usage Rate Effective FG% Points per Game Magic (25 games) 63.9 25.3% 50.9% 14.6 Nuggets (6 games)

The Warriors have been bad. They've only won one game out of their last eight and four out of their last sixteen. To be fair, Steph Curry has been out for seven of those games (in which the team went 1-6.) But the issue runs deeper than that, when Steph's on the court the offense looks sluggish, and when he's off the court, it's downright abysmal .  (Ezra Shaw, Getty Images) The root cause: the pieces don't fit the offensive scheme. The Warriors in past seasons have gashed teams with a motion offense, relying upon high-IQ passing wings and bigs finding Steph and Klay (and KD) on the perimeter. Klay and KD's replacements, Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre lack the skillset to succeed in such a system. The trade deadline has already passed and the team already has a lot of salary on the books, so major roster changes are unlikely to happen. Perhaps, the scheme needs to be changed to maximize the current talent.