The Warriors have been bad. They've only won one game out of their last eight and four out of their last sixteen. To be fair, Steph Curry has been out for seven of those games (in which the team went 1-6.) But the issue runs deeper than that, when Steph's on the court the offense looks sluggish, and when he's off the court, it's downright abysmal.
The root cause: the pieces don't fit the offensive scheme. The Warriors in past seasons have gashed teams with a motion offense, relying upon high-IQ passing wings and bigs finding Steph and Klay (and KD) on the perimeter. Klay and KD's replacements, Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre lack the skillset to succeed in such a system. The trade deadline has already passed and the team already has a lot of salary on the books, so major roster changes are unlikely to happen. Perhaps, the scheme needs to be changed to maximize the current talent.
The Warriors are running the pick and roll the second least in the league, yet in terms of efficiency, they're ranked fourth netting a solid 0.96 points per possession. Curry himself is lethal as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and has consistently been one of the league's best since the inception of player tracking data.
But compared to other highly efficient ball handlers, Steph isn't even close in terms of the frequency of pick and rolls.
| Player | Points Per PnR | PnR Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Curry | 1.13 | 28.5% |
| Lillard | 1.07 | 48.9% |
| Doncic | 1.03 | 49.1% |
| Young | 0.97 | 54.8% |
Without talents like KD and Klay to elevate a motion offense, simplifying the offense is the only path forward if the team still intends to make a playoff push.
A more pick-and-roll heavy offense can additionally help spur on rookie James Wiseman's development. Wiseman excels at playing face-up and as a roll man, but due to a lanky frame and high center of gravity, he struggles in the post as shorter and smaller players can undercut and unbalance him. He doesn't yet have the experience required to be a passing threat out of the post like Andrew Bogut was early in the Warriors dynasty. This season, Wiseman is posting up 18.3% of the time yet is only getting 0.74 points per possession on post-ups. As the roll man in a pick and roll, he's generating a far more efficient 1.12 points per possession.
Against the Bulls (the one win in the last eight games), the Warriors doubled the number of pick-and-rolls they ran at 40.3% compared to their season average of 18.0%. Wiseman got out to a hot start with 6 points in the first four minutes, including this lob from Steph:
Yet in subsequent losses against the Heat and Hawks, the Warriors reverted to running pick and rolls right around their season average rate. Head coach Steve Kerr has stated before the season on The Athletic's TK Show that the team isn't going to "sudden[ly] turn into the Rockets -- change our offense -- and have one guy go high pick-and-roll 70 times a game." But as he sees the team struggling, he's stated in postgame conferences that the team will go to it more.
Hopefully, the Warriors can make the requisite tweaks on offense to make a strong playoff push in these last twenty or so games of the regular season.
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