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Will the Clippers Shot Selection Hurt Them?

Last season, despite being the oddsmakers' favorite before the regular season started, before the league was suspended due to COVID, and before the playoffs started, the Clippers choked in the Western Conference Semifinals against the Nuggets. Despite being up 3-1 in the seven-game series, they failed to win just one of the remaining 3 games and were sent home from the bubble. 

Paul George (left) and Kawhi Leonard (right) in 2019 (Mark J. Terrill, Associated Press)

Over the offseason, the team failed to address what many thought was their main need: a true playmaking point guard. Chris Paul rumors were short-lived before he was shipped to the Suns. Dennis Schöeder was reportedly in trade talks, but the Thunder were more willing to work with the Lakers. Then Lakers sixth-man Rajon Rondo was heavily reported to be interested in signing with the Clippers, but he signed with Atlanta. Clippers fans were particularly salty about this one.

Coming into this season, losing Montrezl Harrell (who shot nearly 60% from two in 2019), Clippers fans this year are increasingly worried about the team's inability to attack the basket and draw fouls to generate free throw attempts. To be fair, their best player Kawhi Leonard makes his living in the midrange, taking the 8th most attempts in the league and making a respectable 46.2% of them. Nevertheless, Clipper's writer Farbod Esnaashari has raised concerns about his team's reliance on jump shooting.

Esnaashari is correct that layups and dunks (easy baskets) are the best shots in basketball. Obviously, players make them more often than any other shot by virtue of being closer to the basket. They also are the shots players are most fouled on, meaning efficient trips to the free throw line and the opportunity to put your opponent in foul trouble.

Let's take a look at how the Clippers stack up against teams that have recently made it to the conference finals:

The Clippers are significantly behind conference finals teams with their ability to attack the rim. Only 24.1% of their total field goal attempts were classified as either dunks or layups. Their FT Rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempts) of 0.226 is also quite low for a team looking to make a deep playoff run. The most comparable team to the Clippers by these metrics are the 2018-19 Warriors, who had the two greatest shooters of all time in Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson on top of one of the most efficient perimeter scorers of all time in Kevin Durant. The Clippers do not have that level of outside offensive talent, period. 

To make a deep playoff run, the Clippers need to do a better job of attacking the basket. Schematically speaking, head coach Tyronn Lue could tweak the offense to involve more cuts to the basket and drives. As the trade deadline nears, the Clippers are rumored to be interested in Ricky Rubio to address their "true point guard" problem. Rubio has averaged 7.7 assists for his career and could provide valuable playmaking alongside Leonard and George.


UPDATE (3/25): Right at the trade deadline, the Clippers traded for Rajon Rondo, the "true" point guard they'd failed to sign in free agency last offseason. We will see how this affects the Clippers shot selection and performance in the future.

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