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Will Lebron Run out of Gas?

LeBron James has certainly logged a lot of minutes throughout his 18-year career. Prior to this season, LeBron played just shy of forty thousand minutes in the regular season alone. Factoring in ten trips to finals in his career and all those playoff games, you're up to a total of 49,796 minutes for the 36-year-old. That's good for 7th on the all-time minutes played leaderboard.

(Sports Illustrated)

With COVID and the delayed NBA bubble, the offseason was shortened to only 72 days, significantly less than the typical 130 or so days. This time is crucial for players to take a break from the wear and tear of the season, work on tweaking their game, and overall deal with any nagging physical issues that may have arisen through the year. LeBron is no stranger to taking care of his body especially at his age, investing over a million dollars a year in trainers recovery therapy, and personal chefs.

As a result, LeBron has almost never missed extended periods of time due to injury outside of 17 games missed due to a groin strain in 2019. Playing too many minutes and exerting too much energy can catch up with a player, leading some fans and analysts to argue LeBron should play less basketball (whether fewer minutes a game or not even dressing) to stay fresher for the playoffs.

Wednesday's game at Sacramento was LeBron's first inactive game this season, having played the Lakers' first 36 games. Over that time he logged the fourth-most minutes in the NBA at 1,245.

Insights into player tracking data over the past few seasons tell us this minutes load may not be such a big deal after all. LeBron is resting during games, especially on the defensive end of the floor, indicated by his average speed decreasing: 

A few observations:

  • LeBron's decrease in speed isn't reflective of his running or sprinting slower. The average speed calculation just accounts for the total distance traveled in possession over the time of that possession. Decreases in average speed are more reflective of LeBron running less rather than running slower. 
  • LeBron is one of the "slowest" (again not how fast he runs, how much he runs) defensive players in the NBA this season out of those that average 30MPG and have played more than 25 games.
  • The spike in Offensive speed in 2018 is a result of LeBron changing teams from the Cavaliers, then one of the oldest rosters, to the Lakers, one of the younger rosters in the league. With fresher legs around him, LeBron was more able to push the pace and get out in transition.
LeBron has still managed to stay effective on both ends of the floor even while running less. On the defensive end, LeBron is no longer the tenacious point-of-attack defender he was in his first stint with the Cavaliers and early into his Miami career. He's instead evolved to use his high basketball IQ as his physical gifts are not once they once were. Mo Dakhil does an excellent breakdown of how LeBron is taking a more "free safety" role in the Lakers' defense, jumping passing lanes and providing excellent help defense with rim protection. Statistically, LeBron is top 3 in the league in defensive rating (102.9) among those playing more than 25 games and 30MPG. I think this does somewhat overrate his defensive impact, but nevertheless, he is effective.

On the offensive side of the ball, LeBron has once again built his playstyle around exerting energy in short bursts. According to play-by-play data, 55% of his possessions are either isolation, pick-and-roll as the ball handler, or post-ups. These plays are not very taxing on Lebron; he doesn't have to move much. Yet, he does still leave some gas in the tank for running the fast break as almost 20% of his possessions are operating in transition. Accordingly, most of the plays that require long somewhat prolonged player movement (cuts, handoffs, pick-and-roll as the roll man, etc.) LeBron rarely engages in. There are simply easier ways for him to make more impact at a lesser physical cost.

I wouldn't worry too much about LeBron getting tired later in the regular season or during the Lakers' playoff push. He's certainly been judicious in his career about when to exert energy on both ends of the floor and the player tracking data shows that he's even more cognizant of it coming off an extremely shortened offseason.

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